With 10-year yields near a 24-year high and Brent above $100, corporate profits need to keep carrying the market.
US futures edge up ahead of big-bank earnings, Wednesday's CPI and a Warsh speech. Q3 S&P 500 earnings are seen growing 29.6%.
US stocks head into the busiest week of the quarter with the wind at their backs, and with a few storms on the horizon. S&P 500 futures rose 0.12% when trading reopened on Sunday evening, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.24%.
Last week ended on a high: the Dow rose 423 points (0.8%) on Friday to 51,655, the S&P 500 closed at 7,811.51 and the Nasdaq notched its fourth straight weekly gain. That came despite the 10-year Treasury yield touching about 5.37% midweek, its highest level since 2002.
The calendar:
- Today: Columbus Day. Stocks trade, but the US bond market is closed.
- Tuesday: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo report.
- Wednesday: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock report, and September CPI comes out. Economists expect 3.7% headline inflation year on year and 2.5% core.
- Thursday: PPI is released, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings.
The number: FactSet expects S&P 500 third-quarter earnings to grow 29.6%. That would be the fourth straight quarter above 25%, powered by AI data centre spending.
Why it matters: With yields this high, stocks can't count on falling rates. They need profits. Strong bank numbers and a tame CPI would extend the rally, while a hot inflation print would revive talk of Warsh tightening further. For Asian markets, including India, a stronger dollar and higher US yields would keep foreign investors cautious.