US–China rare-earth ‘cliff’ moves from November to January, but nothing is settled

China’s suspension of its toughest rare-earth export curbs was due to lapse on Nov 10.

A two-month truce extension buys time to January, but the summit produced no new rare-earth commitments, so the supply risk for global manufacturers remains.

In November 2025, China suspended a set of export controls it had imposed on Oct 9 that year. They covered expanded curbs on rare-earth materials and equipment, lithium battery materials and superhard materials. The suspension was to run until Nov 10, 2026. The curbs would require licences even for products made outside China if they contain Chinese-origin materials or use Chinese technology.

At their Sept 24 summit, Trump and Xi extended the trade truce to Jan 10, 2027, but with no detailed tariff cuts and no firm new commitments on rare earths.

Additional context: Neither side got what it wanted. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer had sought a three-to-six-month extension, while China wanted to lock in the deal for the rest of Trump’s presidency.

Markets read the extension as more time for China to keep its leverage: shares of companies building alternatives to Chinese supply fell, with Japan’s Toyo Engineering down about 9% and Australia’s Lynas down as much as 5%.

The US has accused China of failing to keep its pledge to supply rare earths steadily.