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Moody’s spares France a downgrade as 10-year yield tops 5% Oil slips from six-month highs as Qatar mediates in Tehran China’s Fifth Plenum opens as AI exports mask weak home demand Lula wins, Brazil markets brace for shock sell-off; Tokyo Brazil ETF plunges ~15% Brazil votes today: Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff Fed, ECB, BoJ Rate Decisions This Week: Holds Expected, December in Focus Oil is pricing in the next round of war. Brent tops $116 as Iran tensions drag Wall Street lower Global money is bidding for India's biggest growth stories while leaving India’s index Beyond banks: AI layoffs spread to tobacco, chemicals and payments

Moody’s spares France a downgrade as 10-year yield tops 5% Oil slips from six-month highs as Qatar mediates in Tehran China’s Fifth Plenum opens as AI exports mask weak home demand Lula wins, Brazil markets brace for shock sell-off; Tokyo Brazil ETF plunges ~15% Brazil votes today: Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff Fed, ECB, BoJ Rate Decisions This Week: Holds Expected, December in Focus Oil is pricing in the next round of war. Brent tops $116 as Iran tensions drag Wall Street lower Global money is bidding for India's biggest growth stories while leaving India’s index Beyond banks: AI layoffs spread to tobacco, chemicals and payments

Intelligence

IMF: Gulf economies to shrink 4.8% this year as war hits exports

The IMF now expects the six GCC economies to contract sharply in 2026, a reversal from the growth it forecast in April. A rebound in 2027 depends on shipping returning to normal.

Market Signals | 22 October 2026

IMF: Gulf economies to shrink 4.8% this year as war hits exports

The war is now hitting the Gulf’s own economies, not just oil prices.

The IMF expects the six GCC economies to shrink 4.8% this year. In April it was forecasting 2% growth, so that’s a 6.8-point downgrade.

The damage goes beyond oil: the non-oil economy is also set to contract, by 0.8%.

Between February and May, oil and gas output among the hardest-hit Gulf producers fell from 33 million barrels a day to about 19 million, and Qatar’s output dropped as much as 86%.

There’s some recovery, with Gulf crude shipments back above 75% of pre-war levels in September. The IMF sees a 9.1% rebound in 2027, but only if shipping returns to normal.