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Delayed 15 min · 14:43 GMT

FLASH

Central banks' super week: Fed, ECB, BoJ seen holding; Canada may hike Moody’s spares France a downgrade as 10-year yield tops 5% Oil slips from six-month highs as Qatar mediates in Tehran China’s Fifth Plenum opens as AI exports mask weak home demand Lula wins, Brazil markets brace for shock sell-off; Tokyo Brazil ETF plunges ~15% Brazil votes today: Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff Fed, ECB, BoJ Rate Decisions This Week: Holds Expected, December in Focus Oil is pricing in the next round of war. Brent tops $116 as Iran tensions drag Wall Street lower Global money is bidding for India's biggest growth stories while leaving India’s index

Central banks' super week: Fed, ECB, BoJ seen holding; Canada may hike Moody’s spares France a downgrade as 10-year yield tops 5% Oil slips from six-month highs as Qatar mediates in Tehran China’s Fifth Plenum opens as AI exports mask weak home demand Lula wins, Brazil markets brace for shock sell-off; Tokyo Brazil ETF plunges ~15% Brazil votes today: Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff Fed, ECB, BoJ Rate Decisions This Week: Holds Expected, December in Focus Oil is pricing in the next round of war. Brent tops $116 as Iran tensions drag Wall Street lower Global money is bidding for India's biggest growth stories while leaving India’s index

Industries

Oil's two prices: Brent at $106 now, $99 by December

Traders bet on Hormuz thaw by December despite Trump rejecting Iran

Market Signals | 29 September 2026

Traders pricing a Hormuz Thaw in oil December forwards

Front-month Brent is trading about $7 above the December contract. Traders expect prices to ease once Gulf shipping normalises, but not yet.

Front-month Brent is around $106.2 (+1.8%), up about 17% this month and 58% on the year.

The driver for the prices is Hormuz: the strait has been largely blocked since February 28, 2026, when the U.S. and Israel launched an air campaign against Iran. Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the strait, which pushed the relief further out.

December Brent trades about $7 below front-month, at $99.40 (+2%).

That ~$6.8 (≈6.4%) gap is backwardation: the market is paying a premium for oil now while betting the squeeze fades. Traders are pricing in a cooldown of the Hormuz crisis by year-end and they're making that bet despite the current stalemate.