China’s economy beats forecasts with 4.5% Q3 growth on export boom

China’s GDP expanded 4.5% in July–September from a year earlier, up from 4.3% in Q2 and ahead of most forecasts. Exports are carrying the economy while home demand stays weak.

 AI-driven tech exports have surged.Tech shipments have boomed on the back of AI, and China is on course to top last year’s record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, with $938 billion already banked through September.

China is on track to beat last year’s record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, with exports up 36% last month and a $938 billion surplus already logged for January–September.

However, growth is held back by soft domestic demand and a sagging property market. That gap between strong exports and weak local demand is now the central question for Beijing and its trading partners. Retail sales rose just 1.1% in September.

Beijing’s 2026 target is 4.5–5% growth, among the slowest in decades outside the pandemic.