Oil is trading on a single question: will Iran’s mediation track hold?
Brent fell $3.43 to $110 and WTI fell to $100.62 as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third day of talks on ending the US-Israeli war on Iran, while OPEC+ kept December output unchanged. Brent ended October at a six-month high as traders positioned for possible escalation after the 3 November US midterms.
Goldman raised its December Brent forecast to $105 from $90 and estimates the risk premium at about $27 a barrel.
In its tail scenario, if Gulf output stays 3.5 mb/d below its 2025 average, Brent could hit $140 and average about $130 in 2027. Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran was ready for both defence and diplomacy, and attacks on Hormuz tankers have raised shipping costs.
A breakthrough that reopens Hormuz could unwind the premium toward $100–106. A stalemate, with talks dragging and tanker attacks continuing, keeps Brent in the $110–117 band.
Escalation after Tuesday’s US midterms, especially strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, opens $120-plus, with Goldman’s tail case at $140. For importers in Asia, every $10 a barrel is now a diplomatic variable, not a market one.